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Imf Drawing Programs

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Author Info

  • Eugenio Cerutti

Abstract

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries'' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries'' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/152.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/152

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Related research

Keywords: IMF; Extended arrangements; current account; imf credit outstanding; probability; probabilities; forecasting; debt crisis; statistics; currency crisis; government deficit; balance of payment; independent variables; standard errors; current account deficit; debt crises; dummy variable; current account balance; credit tranches; financial statistics; currency crises; binary choice; standard error; balance of payments; cointegration; repayments; binary choice model; external obligations; current account deficits; predictions; computation; time series; equation; prediction; survey; probability value; debt servicing; empirical estimation; logarithm; external debt;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
  2. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis ," TWI Research Paper Series 13, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit├Ąt Konstanz.
  3. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 173-186.
  4. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
  5. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  7. James M. Boughton, 2004. "The IMF and the force of History," IMF Working Papers 04/75, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Joseph P Joyce, 2004. "Adoption, Implementation and Impact of IMF Programmes: A Review of the Issues and Evidence1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 451-467, September.
  9. Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  11. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 991-1014, December.
  12. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  13. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521816755 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
  16. Miguel A. Savastano & Michael Mussa, 1999. "The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 99/104, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jiro Honda, 2008. "Do IMF Programs Improve Economic Governance?," IMF Working Papers 08/114, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF Lending Decisions after the Cold War," KOF Working papers 11-279, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Yasemin Bal-Gunduz, 2009. "Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks," IMF Working Papers 09/263, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund.

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