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IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting

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Author Info
Eugenio Cerutti
Abstract

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/152.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/152

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Keywords: Working Paper ; Use of Fund resources ; Extended arrangements ; Stand-by arrangements ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. James M. Boughton, 2004. "The IMF and the Force of History: Ten Events and Ten Ideas that Have Shaped the Institution," IMF Working Papers 04/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joseph P Joyce, 2004. "Adoption, Implementation and Impact of IMF Programmes: A Review of the Issues and Evidence1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 451-467, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 173-186, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions On Imf Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17, pages 177-213, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 991-1014, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Mussa & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 99/104, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jiro Honda, 2008. "Do IMF Programs Improve Economic Governance?," IMF Working Papers 08/114, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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