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An Oil and Gas Model

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  • Noureddine Krichene
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    Abstract

    This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price- inelastic, relatively income-elastic, and was influenced by interest and exchange rates; short-run supply was price-inelastic. Short-run price inelasticity could be a source for high volatility in oil and gas prices, and could confer to producers a temporary market power. Being simultaneous and incorporating interest and exchange rates, the model could be useful in short-term forecasting of oil and gas outputs and prices under policy scenarios.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/135.

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    Length: 30
    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/135

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    Related research

    Keywords: Natural gas; Interest rates; Exchange rates; Oil prices; Economic models; oil and crude oil; oil demand; gas demand; oil supply; gas supply; gas prices; gas markets; oil shock; demand for natural gas demand; gas output; natural gas supply; oil markets; gas reserves; oil shocks; gas price; crude oil price; gas sector; lead; oil reserves; gas industry; economic theory; natural gas price; oil sector; oil imports; gas use; hydrocarbons; world oil demand; gas fields; gas consumption; regression analysis; white noise; noise; oil producers; econometric analysis; natural gas output; natural gas markets; oil products; higher oil prices; gas resources; oil production; gas demands; gas oil; gas deposits; gas suppliers; natural gas prices; petroleum products; oil importing countries; crude oil markets; natural gas reserves; fuel prices; oil price changes; gas production; power generation; petroleum industry; natural gas use; high pressure; gas ? oil; opec; price of natural oil discoveries;

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    Cited by:
    1. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/133, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2007. "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

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