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Coping with Spain's Aging: Retirement Rules and Incentives

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Author Info
Mario Catalán
Jaime Guajardo
Alexander W. Hoffmaister

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of extending the averaging period used to calculate pension benefits in a pay-as-you-go system. It also examines the complementarities between reforms extending the averaging period and those increasing the retirement age under alternative tax policies. The analysis is based on a model in the Auerbach-Kotlikoff tradition applied to the Spanish economy. Without reforms, the simulations suggest that aging-related spending as a share of output will increase 16 percentage points by 2050, which are twice as much as in European Commission (2006) projections due to general equilibrium effects. Also, reforms extending the averaging period to the entire work life limit expenditure pressures at the peak of the demographic shock as much as increasing the retirement age in line with life expectancy (4 percentage points of GDP). These reforms and prefunding the demographic shock mitigate the adverse macroeconomic effects of aging and improve welfare.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/122.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 24 May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/122

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  1. Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2001. "Endogenous Retirement And Public Pension System Reform In Spain," Economics Working Papers we013503, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ángel Estrada & José Luis Fernández & Esther Moral & Ana V. Regil, 2004. "A quarterly macroeconometric model of the Spanish Economy," Banco de España Working Papers 0413, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Juan F. Jimeno, . "El sistema de pensiones contributivas en España: Cuestiones básicas y perspectivas en el medio plazo," Working Papers 2000-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan A. Rojas, . "Life-cycle Earnings Cohort Size Effects and Social Security. A Quantitative Exploration," Studies on the Spanish Economy 88, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0601, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "The A-K Model: It's Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 6684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
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  10. Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Papers 36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
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  11. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alan S. Blinder & Roger H. Gordon & Donald E. Wise, 1981. "Reconsidering the Work Disincentive Effects of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 0562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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