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Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

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  • Leo Bonato

Abstract

This paper looks at the determinants of inflation in Iran. Unlike the traditional estimates of the demand function for real money balances, the approach followed here focuses on the relationship between nominal variables and inflation. The model estimates are used to address the questions raised by the decline in inflation that occurred up to the first half of 2006, looking at the structural stability of the estimated relationships and the ability of the model to predict inflation at the end of the sample. The estimates confirm the strong relationship between money and inflation when M1 is used, with no evidence of a structural change.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/119.

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Length: 17
Date of creation: 01 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/119

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Keywords: Money; Economic models;

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References

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  1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  2. Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, 03.
  3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  4. Pesaran, M. H., 1998. "Economic Trends and Macroeconomic Policies in Post-revolutionary Iran," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9818, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Mangal Goswami & Oya Celasun, 2002. "An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 02/205, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," Working Papers 534, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2010.
  2. Magda E. Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2009. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," IMF Working Papers 09/82, International Monetary Fund.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 10/135, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 08/193, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Moayedi, Vafa, 2012. "Detecting Islamic Calendar Effects on U.S. Meat Consumption: Is the Muslim Population Larger than Widely Assumed?," MPRA Paper 41554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University (ISS), The Hague.

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