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The Convergence Dynamics of a Transition Economy

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Author Info

  • Jan Bruha
  • Jiri Podpiera
  • Stanislav Polák

Abstract

In this paper we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model by means of which we seek to explain the long-run paths of a converging emerging market economy. We borrow a paradigm from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature and amend it to address specific features such as initial asymmetry in development and size of economies as well as different speed of capital accumulation. Using a calibration of productivity and deep parameters for the Czech economy we demonstrate the ability of the model to consistently replicate dynamics in key macroeconomic variables that are essential inputs for commonly used "gap models" in monetary policy routine. Based on the calibration we draw implications for future convergence of the Czech economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/116.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: 01 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/116

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Keywords: Economic indicators; Emerging markets; Economic models; exchange rate; real exchange rate; transition economy; transition economies; exchange rate appreciation; real exchange rate appreciation; open economy; domestic market; output growth; transition countries; exchange rate movements; exchange rate regimes; endogenous growth; monetary integration; export costs; export performance; economic convergence; economic integration; balance of payments; tradable goods; domestic goods; investment goods; terms of trade; exchange rates; domestic production; external liberalization; exchange rate fluctuations; international trade; income differentials; market equilibrium; trade openness; exchange rate regime; exchange rate development; benchmark equilibrium; external position; real exchange rate movements; trade liberalization; idiosyncratic shocks; monetary union; flexible exchange rate regimes; real exchange rate fluctuations; domestic investment; policy regimes; real exchange rates; world price; foreign trade; exchange rate dynamics; intermediate goods; equilibrium model; full liberalization; perfect competition; exchange rate changes; trade barriers; economic community; equilibrium exchange rate; political economy; foreign investment; export dynamics; skilled labor; flexible exchange rate; domestic firms; exchange rate path; domestic economy; impact of trade; exchange rate flexibility; elasticity of substitution; foreign ownership; income convergence; foreign exchange rate; foreign exchange; policy barriers; real exchange rate path; price liberalization; export structure; domestic consumption;

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References

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  1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kanda Naknoi & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2005. "On the Benefits of Exchange Rate Flexibility under Endogenous Tradedness of Goods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 405, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 599, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Henry, Peter B., 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, The Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," Research Papers 1778, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Reuven Glick & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Endogenous Nontradability and Macroeconomic Implications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 106, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Bruha, Jan & Podpiera, Jirí, 2007. "Transition economy convergence in a two-country model: implications for monetary integration," Working Paper Series 0740, European Central Bank.
  8. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August.
  9. Ian Babetskii & Balazs Egert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp267, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  10. Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Endogenous Tradability andMacroeconomic Implications," Working Papers 513, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  11. Judd, Kenneth L., 2002. "The parametric path method: an alternative to Fair-Taylor and L-B-J for solving perfect foresight models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1557-1583, August.
  12. De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
  13. Gilli, Manfred & Pauletto, Giorgio, 1998. "Krylov methods for solving models with forward-looking variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1275-1289, August.
  14. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  15. Juillard, Michel & Laxton, Douglas & McAdam, Peter & Pioro, Hope, 1998. "An algorithm competition: First-order iterations versus Newton-based techniques," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1291-1318, August.
  16. Martin Cincibuch & Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: Real Appreciation in Tradables in Transition Countries," Working Papers 2004/09, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  17. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-33, May.
  18. Henning Ahnert & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Quality adjustment of European price statistics and the role for hedonics," Occasional Paper Series 15, European Central Bank.
  19. Kenneth L. Judd, 2001. "Parametric Path Method: An alternative to Fair-Taylor and L-B-J for solving perfect foresight models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 112, Society for Computational Economics.
  20. Bruha, Jan & Podpiera, Jirí, 2007. "Inquiries on dynamics of transition economy convergence in a two-country model," Working Paper Series 0791, European Central Bank.
  21. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
  22. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regime," International Finance 0509004, EconWPA, revised 07 Nov 2005.
  23. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Jan Bruha & Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "Transition Economy Convergence in a Two-Country Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 154, Society for Computational Economics.
  25. Jiri Podpiera & Marie Rakova, 2006. "Degree of Competition and Export-Production Relative Prices when the Exchange Rate Changes: Evidence from a Panel of Czech Exporting Companies," Working Papers 2006/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  26. Hanousek, Jan & Filer, Randall K, 2004. "Consumers' Opinion of Inflation Bias Due to Quality Improvements," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 235-54, October.
  27. Jiøí Podpiera & Marie Raková, 2008. "Competition and Relative Prices when the Exchange Rate Changes: Evidence from Exporting Companies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(01-02), pages 38-56, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky, August.
  2. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  3. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2010. "From inflation to exchange rate targeting: Estimating the stabilization effects for a small open economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 450-468, December.
  4. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, August.
  5. Jiri Popiera & Jan Bruha, 2007. "Inquiries on Dynamics of Transition Economy Convergence in a Two-Country Model," 2007 Meeting Papers 587, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, August.
  7. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2008. "From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects," MPRA Paper 10844, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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