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Old Curses, New Approaches? Fiscal Benchmarks for Oil-Producing Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Jan-Peter Olters

Abstract

Buoyant oil prices have allowed oil-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA OPCs) to increase oil exports and fiscal revenues, providing them with resources necessary to address the pressing social needs. To preclude another boom-bust cycle, this paper advocates the definition of a fiscal benchmark anchored in sustainability grounds, following Leigh- Olters (2006). The difference between current primary deficits and those that could be maintained after oil reserves are exhausted represent an indication of the degree to which fiscal positions will have to be adjusted-either gradually, while the overall balances remain in surplus, or abruptly, once oil revenues begin to dwindle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/107.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: 01 May 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/107

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Keywords: Oil revenues; Oil exports; oil production; oil reserves; oil and gas; gas reserves; oil prices; fiscal policy; gas production; oil producers; primary deficit; government expenditure; natural resources; government spending; oil-producing countries; public spending; public expenditure; fiscal sustainability; fiscal positions; fiscal space; oil companies; fiscal balances; opec; oil sector; public debt; oil exporting countries; fiscal response; fiscal deficit; tax system; sustainable fiscal policy; fiscal stance; fiscal deficits; oil exploration; economic studies; fiscal policies; fiscal adjustment; fiscal strategy; fiscal policy formulation; international oil prices; probable gas reserves; international oil companies; fiscal expansion; fiscal revenues; fiscal consolidation; fiscal vulnerability; fiscal management; fiscal expansions; probable reserves; budget constraint; capital expenditure; extractive industries; primary fiscal balance; hydrocarbon reserves; oil market; renewable resources; efficiency of government expenditure; debt obligations; fiscal position; interest expenditure; tax policy; fiscal crises; budgetary control; nonrenewable resources; fiscal sustainability analyses; excessive borrowing; fiscal restraint; reducing flaring; expenditure composition; higher oil prices; sustainable fiscal deficit; fiscal stimuli; energy information administration; tax revenues; capital expenditures; fiscal balance; geological survey; primary expenditure; medium-term expenditure frameworks; tax collections;

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References

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  1. Xavier Sala-i-Martín & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "Addressing the natural resource curse: An illustration from Nigeria," Economics Working Papers 685, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  3. Solow, Robert M, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 141-49.
  4. Velculescu Delia, 2004. "Intergenerational Habits, Fiscal Policy, and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, September.
  5. Arvind Subramanian & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse," IMF Working Papers 03/139, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Alonso Segura, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis," IMF Working Papers 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
  7. H. Takizawa & E. H. Gardner & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better off Spending their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 04/141, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paul Collier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  2. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2009. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2571, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott & Cagri Kumru, 2008. "Managing Public Investment Funds: Best Practices and New Challenges," NBER Working Papers 14078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Corinne Deléchat & Matthew Gaertner, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessment in a Resource-Dependent Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/83, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Venables, Anthony J., 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," CEPR Discussion Papers 7875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J Venables, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign wealth funds and optimal tradeoffs between citizen dividends, public infrastructure and debt reduction," OxCarre Working Papers 009, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  8. Djiofack, Calvin Z. & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2011. "Oil depletion and development in Cameroon: A critical appraisal of the permanent income hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7202-7216.
  9. Stevens, Paul & Dietsche, Evelyn, 2008. "Resource curse: An analysis of causes, experiences and possible ways forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 56-65, January.
  10. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Ploeg, 2013. "Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 827-866, October.
  11. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/126, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Jens R. Clausen, 2008. "Calculating Sustainable Non-Mineral Balances As Benchmarks for Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/117, International Monetary Fund.

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