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Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection

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David A. Grigorian
Hamid Reza Davoodi

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Abstract

Despite recording double digit growth since 2000, Armenia's tax-to-GDP ratio has been fairly stable at about 14½ percent. This paper catalogues a range of factors that may account for Armenia's stubbornly for tax collection by benchmarking Armenia's tax-to-GDP against some comparator countries and conducting an extensive econometric study of the main determinants of tax collection. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that the persistence of Armenia's low tax-GDP ratio can be traced to persistence of weak institutions and a large shadow economy. The gap between the potential and actual tax collection in Armenia could be as high as 6½ percent of GDP. We conclude with some policy recommendations that, if adopted, can boost revenue buoyancy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/106.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 03 May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/106

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  5. Ronald G. Cummings & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Michael McKee & Benno Torgler, 2005. "Effects of Tax Morale on Tax Compliance: Experimental and Survey Evidence," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0516, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2004. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," CREMA Working Paper Series 2004-21, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Tahsin Saadi-Sedik & Jean-Louis Combes, 2006. "How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 06/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA). [Downloadable!]
  10. Leuthold, Jane H., 1991. "Tax shares in developing economies A panel study," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 173-185, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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