Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit
AbstractReferences to policy credibility, particularly with regard to fiscal policy, are ubiquitous in both economic literature and financial markets, even though it is not directly observable. The case of the EU new member states (NMS)-emerging markets joining a supranational entity that is generally considered to have higher policy credibility-provides a unique experiment to assess the effects of credibility on sovereign credit. This paper examines the impact of EU accession on three key variables that can reflect in varying degrees policy credibility: sovereign ratings, foreign currency spreads, and local currency yields. The results suggest that the NMS appear to have enjoyed higher credibility compared to their peers.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/1.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-05-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2007-05-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-MON-2007-05-04 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994.
"Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August.
- Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
- Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008.
"Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1990.
"Credibility and Stabilization,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October.
- David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2005. "Financial Globalization and Fiscal Perfomance in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/212, International Monetary Fund.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1997.
"High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 956-85, July.
- Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, . "High Yielders: the Spread on German Interest Rates," Working Papers 102, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 1330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-34, November.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings,"
9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Edda Zoli, 2004. "Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/70, International Monetary Fund.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
- Ante Žigman & Boris Cota, 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on government bond spreads in emerging markets," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 385-412.
- Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2011.
"Fiscal variables and bond spreads - evidence from Eastern European countries and Turkey,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1291-1307.
- Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Rülke, Jan C., 2009. "Fiscal variables and bond spreads: evidence from eastern European countries and Turkey," Working Paper Series 1101, European Central Bank.
- Martin Èihák & Srobona Mitra, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and European Emerging Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 541-553, December.
- Martin CihÃ¡k & Wim Fonteyne, 2009. "Five Years After," IMF Working Papers 09/68, International Monetary Fund.
- Susan Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectiveson the New Members of the Eu Differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.