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Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

This paper shows that the dominant view that the high variability of real exchange rates is due to movements in exchange rate-adjusted prices of tradable goods does not hold for Mexican data for periods with a managed exchange rate. The relative price of nontradables accounts for up to 70 percent of real exchange rate variability during these periods. The paper also proposes a model in which this fact, and the sudden stops that accompanied the collapse of Mexico''s managed exchange rates, could result from a Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism operating via nontradables prices in economies with dollarized liabilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/88.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/88

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Keywords: Real effective exchange rates; Price adjustments; exchange rate; real exchange rate; real exchange rates; relative price; exchange rates; relative prices; exchange rate regimes; exchange rate management; nominal exchange rate; exchange rate regime; fixed exchange rate; exchange rate variability; floating exchange rates; exchange rate changes; real exchange rate changes; real exchange rate fluctuations; exchange rate fluctuations; floating exchange rate; alternative exchange rate regimes; alternative exchange rate; exchange rate volatility; effective exchange rates; inflation; real value; real exchange rate volatility; terms of trade; real effects of exchange-rate; floating exchange rate regimes; monetary economics; currency pegs; real exchange rate movements; exchange rate dynamics; fixed exchange rate regime; foreign currency; exchange rate movements; real interest rate; inflation targeting; exchange rate behavior; real exchange rate behavior; nominal exchange rates; hard currency; terms of trade shocks; exchange rate policy; inflation stabilization; real exchange rate dynamics; exchange rate floats; flexible exchange rate; macroeconomic analysis; average exchange rate; currency devaluation;

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References

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  1. Charles Engel, 2000. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy:The Influence of Price-Setting and Asset Markets," Working Papers 0020, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  2. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Horta Correia & Pedro Teles, 2006. "On the Relevance of Exchange Rate Regimes for Stabilization Policy," Working Papers w200616, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
  6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  7. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  8. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Martín Gonzalez Rozada, 2003. "The elasticity of Substitution in demand for Non tradable Goods in Latin America. Case Study: Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers 027, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  9. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  10. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
  12. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regime," International Finance 0509004, EconWPA, revised 07 Nov 2005.
  14. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
  15. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Mendoza, Enrique G, 2001. "The Benefits of Dollarization When Stabilization Policy Lacks Credibility and Financial Markets Are Imperfect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 440-74, May.
  17. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 7768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1990. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  21. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," Research Department Publications 4307, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  22. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
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