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Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis--A How-To Guide

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Author Info
Philippe D Karam
Douglas Laxton
Andrew Berg

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Abstract

This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips) curve, a version of the uncovered interest parity condition, and a monetary policy reaction function. The paper discusses how to parameterize the model and use it for forecasting and policy analysis, illustrating with an application to Canada. It also introduces a set of useful software tools for conducting a model-consistent forecast.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/81.

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Length: 69 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/81

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Canada ; United States ; Monetary aggregates ; Forecasting models ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: Cited by:
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  1. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jaromir Benes & David Vávra & Marta de Castello Branco, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Shekhar Aiyar & Ivan Tchakarov, 2008. "Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth," IMF Working Papers 08/140, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Keiko Honjo & Ben Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 06/262, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Keiko Honjo, 2007. "The Golden Rule and the Economic Cycles," IMF Working Papers 07/199, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philippe D Karam & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation," IMF Working Papers 08/64, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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