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Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis--A How-To Guide

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Author Info

  • Douglas Laxton
  • Andrew Berg
  • Philippe D Karam

Abstract

This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips) curve, a version of the uncovered interest parity condition, and a monetary policy reaction function. The paper discusses how to parameterize the model and use it for forecasting and policy analysis, illustrating with an application to Canada. It also introduces a set of useful software tools for conducting a model-consistent forecast.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/81.

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Length: 69
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/81

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary aggregates; Forecasting models; Economic models;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
  2. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6 - The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 13/87, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Keiko Honjo & Ben Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 06/262, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Ondra Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Cuddington, John T. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2013. "A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 75-87.
  6. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Shekhar Aiyar & Ivan Tchakarov, 2008. "Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth," IMF Working Papers 08/140, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1461-1472.
  9. Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "The Road to Recovery: Fiscal Stimulus, Financial Sector Rehabilitation, and Exit from Policy Easing," Working Papers 0918, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  10. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  11. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Keiko Honjo, 2007. "The Golden Rule and the Economic Cycles," IMF Working Papers 07/199, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Philippe D Karam & A. R. Pagan, 2008. "A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation," IMF Working Papers 08/64, International Monetary Fund.
  14. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund.

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