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A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview

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Author Info
Philippe D Karam
Douglas Laxton
Andrew Berg

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Abstract

This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. It contrasts this approach with financial programming and its emphasis on monetary aggregates, as well as with more econometrically driven analyses. It presents illustrative results from an application to Canada. A companion paper provides a more detailed how-to guide and introduces a set of tools designed to facilitate this approach.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/80.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/80

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Canada ; United States ; Monetary aggregates ; Forecasting models ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Benjamin Friedman, 2003. "The LM Curve: A Not-So-Fond Farewell," NBER Working Papers 10123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 139-235. [Downloadable!]
  13. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Douglas Laxton & David Rose & Alasdair Scott, 2009. "Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)," IMF Working Papers 09/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 166, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  21. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Christopher J. Jarvis & Mark R. Stone & Alessandro Zanello & Andrew Berg, 2003. "Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience," IMF Working Papers 03/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  27. Yongseung Jung & Woon Gyu Choi, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities," IMF Working Papers 03/5, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  28. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Dennis P. J. Botman & Dirk Muir & Andrei Romanov & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  31. Pau Rabanal & Mario I. Bléjer & Alfredo Mario Leone & Gerd Schwartz, . "Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs," IMF Working Papers 01/31, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  33. Ashok Bhundia & Mark R. Stone, 2004. "A New Taxonomy of Monetary Regimes," IMF Working Papers 04/191, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  34. Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Into the Mussa Puzzle: Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 437, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Sep 2000. [Downloadable!]
  35. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2003. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence from 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jorge Roldos, 2006. "Disintermediation and Monetary Transmission in Canada," IMF Working Papers 06/84, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jaromir Benes & David Vávra & Marta de Castello Branco, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2006. "Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/268, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 07/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Eyal Argov & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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