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A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview

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Author Info
Philippe D Karam
Douglas Laxton
Andrew Berg

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Abstract

This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. It contrasts this approach with financial programming and its emphasis on monetary aggregates, as well as with more econometrically driven analyses. It presents illustrative results from an application to Canada. A companion paper provides a more detailed how-to guide and introduces a set of tools designed to facilitate this approach.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/80.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/80

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Keywords: Monetary policy Canada United States Monetary aggregates Forecasting models Economic models

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  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Benjamin Friedman, 2003. "The LM Curve: A Not-So-Fond Farewell," NBER Working Papers 10123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 139-235. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 166, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Yongseung Jung & Woon Gyu Choi, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities," IMF Working Papers 03/5, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  22. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Pau Rabanal & Mario I. Bléjer & Alfredo Mario Leone & Gerd Schwartz, . "Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs," IMF Working Papers 01/31, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Ashok Bhundia & Mark R. Stone, 2004. "A New Taxonomy of Monetary Regimes," IMF Working Papers 04/191, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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