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Determinants of Venezuela's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Juan Zalduendo
Abstract

The Venezuelan Bolivar is pegged to the U.S. dollar and supported by foreign exchange restrictions. To assess the appropriateness of the peg during the current period of high oil export earnings and the likely consequences of a liberalization, this paper attempts to disentangle the effects of oil prices from other factors underlying the equilibrium real exchange rate, and examines the role of foreign exchange controls by extending the application of a vector error correction (VEC) model to parallel market exchange rates. Several findings are worth noting. First, oil prices have indeed played a significant role in determining a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate path. Second, oil prices are not the only important determinant of the real effective exchange rate: declining productivity is also a key factor. Third, appreciation pressures are rising. Finally, the speed of convergence of a VEC model using parallel rather than official rates is higher, suggesting that the government has been able to maintain sharp deviations between the official and equilibrium rates because of Venezuela's oil dependency and the concentration of oil income in government hands.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/74.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 31 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/74

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Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate ; Venezuela ; Real effective exchange rates ; Venezuela; Republica Bolivariana de ; Oil prices ; Foreign exchange ; Exchange control measures ; Exchange markets ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maurizio Michael Habib & Margarita Manolova Kalamova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Maher Hasan & Jemma Dridi, 2008. "The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria," IMF Working Papers 08/196, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Claudio Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Korhonen, Iikka & Juurikkala, Tuuli, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-dependent countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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