This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Xavier Debrun
Oya Celasun
Jonathan David Ostry

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp0667.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/67.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 23 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/67

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Public debt Emerging markets Debt sustainability analysis

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. repec:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:2:p:222-40 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Xavier Debrun & Ashoka Mody & Oya Celasun & Martin Schindler & Cheng Hoom Lim & Chris Lane & Ernesto Ramirez Rigo & Mathew A. Verghis & Mark E. L. Griffiths & Mats Josefsson & Christian Keller & Chris, 2005. "Turkey at the Crossroads: From Crisis Resolution to EU Accession," IMF Occasional Papers 242, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Favero, Carlo A, 2002. "How do European Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Mélitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 10637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Oya Celasun & Joong Shik Kang, 2006. "On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions," IMF Working Papers 06/182, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  15. Abdul Abiad & Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Budina, Nina & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4169, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel Leigh & Stéphane Carcillo & Mauricio Villafuerte, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 07/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2007. "International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?," NBER Working Papers 12947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ianchovichina, Elena & Liu, Lili & Nagarajan, Mohan, 2006. "Subnational fiscal sustainability analysis : what can we learn from Tamil Nadu ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3947, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Issouf Samake & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2006. "Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Rising Public Debt-to-GDP Ratios," Staff General Research Papers 12701, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Oya Celasun & Joong Shik Kang, 2006. "On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions," IMF Working Papers 06/182, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Papers 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "Debt Sustainability under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," RES Working Papers 1062, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kevin Joseph Carey & Evan Tanner, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 05/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Adrian Penalver & Gregory Thwaites, . "Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets: the impact of volatility and default risk," Bank of England working papers 307, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  14. Xavier Debrun & Theo Thomas & Taline Koranchelian & Isabell Adenauer & Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz, 2006. "Making Fiscal Space Happen: Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid," IMF Working Papers 06/270, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Julian di Giovanni & E. H. Gardner, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 08/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Xavier Debrun & Natan P. Epstein & Steven A. Symansky, 2008. "A New Fiscal Rule: Should Israel go Swiss?," IMF Working Papers 08/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Paloma Acevedo & Enrique Alberola & Carmen Broto, 2007. "Local debt expansion… vulnerability reduction? An assessment for six crises-prone countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0733, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  18. Charles Wyplosz, 2005. "Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives," HEI Working Papers 03-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 30 Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  19. Abdul Abiad & Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was launched in September 1997.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-22.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.