Toward a Lender of First Resort
AbstractIf interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot be confident that the unaided market will choose the "good" over the "bad" equilibrium. We propose a policy intervention to deal with this structural weakness in the mechanisms of international capital flows. This is based on a simple taxonomy that breaks down the origin of crises into three components: confidence (spreads and currency crisis), fundamentals (real growth rate), and economic policy (primary deficit). Theory then suggests a set of circumstances in which a lender of first resort would be desirable. The policy would seek to short-circuit confidence crises, partly by using IMF support to improve ex ante incentives. Theory also illuminates the potential role of collective action clauses in reducing the risk of self-fulfilling debt crises.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/66.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
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Other versions of this item:
- Cohen, Daniel & Portes, Richard, 2004. "Towards a Lender of First Resort," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
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