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Volatility of Development Aid

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  • A. Javier Hamann
  • Ales Bulir

Abstract

The positive impact of foreign aid is limited by the erratic behavior of aid flows. The introduction in 1999 of various initiatives anchored in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) which were aimed at strengthening coordination among donors, improving the design of financial support programs, and improving domestic records of policy implementation should have led to an improvement in the time series properties of aid flows. We find no evidence of any fundamental changes in the way aid has been delivered in the past five years. If anything, aid volatility has worsened somewhat and the information value of long-term lending commitments has declined. We take these results to mean that the main causes of the volatility and unpredictability of aid, and the broader issue of macroeconomic instability in low-income countries, have not been addressed in a systematic manner by the donor community.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/65.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/65

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Related research

Keywords: Financial programs; predictability; aid flows; foreign aid; development assistance; correlation; sample size; statistics; aid effectiveness; financial statistics; development aid; time series; probability; statistical measures; statistical significance; fitted value; logarithm; statistical methodology; logarithms; mean square; bilateral aid; outliers;

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