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World Crude Oil Markets

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  • Noureddine Krichene
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model. Low price and high income elasticities of demand and rigid supply explain high price volatilities and producers'' market power. Exchange and interest rates do influence oil market equilibrium. The relationship between oil prices and interest rates is a two-way relationship that depends on the type of oil shock. During a supply shock, rising oil prices caused interest rates to increase; whereas during a demand shock, falling interest rates caused oil prices to rise. Record low interest rates led to high oil price volatility in 2005. Data shows that world economic growth and price stability require stable oil markets and therefore more prudent monetary policies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/62.

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    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/62

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    Related research

    Keywords: Interest rates; Exchange rates; Oil prices; Oil crisis; crude oil; natural gas; oil demand; crude oil price; oil supply; oil markets; gas production; crude oil prices; crude price; oil shock; aggregate demand; natural gas production; crude oil futures; aggregate supply; oil futures; oil shocks; regression analysis; gas output; relationship between interest rates; oil and gas; oil production; oil market; crude oil production; oil producers; crude oil price volatility; gas journal; natural gas output; natural gas discoveries; gas discoveries; million barrels; crude oil markets; crude oil market; price of natural gas; oil revenues; petroleum consumption; oil market report; opec; world oil demand; energy efficiency; oil discoveries;

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    4. Edward W. Erickson & Robert M. Spann, 1971. "Supply Response in a Regulated Industry: The Case of Natural Gas," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(1), pages 94-121, Spring.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    10. James M. Griffin & Craig T. Schulman, 2005. "Price Asymmetry in Energy Demand Models: A Proxy for Energy-Saving Technical Change?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-22.
    11. Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 453-468, September.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
    4. Kamiar Mohaddes, 2013. "Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 162-193, 06.
    5. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
    6. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    7. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/133, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/299, International Monetary Fund.
    9. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    10. repec:cam:camdae:1307 is not listed on IDEAS

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