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Inflation in Pakistan

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  • Mohsin S. Khan
  • Axel Schimmelpfennig

Abstract

This paper examines the relative importance of monetary factors and structuralist supply-side factors for inflation in Pakistan. A stylized inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), the exchange rate, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor that has received considerable attention in Pakistan. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Changes in the wheat support price influence inflation in the short run, but not in the long run. Furthermore, the wheat support price matters only over the medium term if accommodated by monetary policy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/60.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/60

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Keywords: Economic models; Money; Wheat; inflation; monetary policy; money supply; monetary factors; monetary fund; monetary phenomenon; monetary growth; money growth; monetary conditions; inflation target; price stability; money demand; price level; high inflation; annual inflation; quantity theory of money; inflation rate; low inflation; monetary aggregate; macroeconomic stability; actual inflation; monetary transmission; low levels of inflation; monetary transmission mechanism; effect of inflation; monetary instruments; rate of inflation; relative price; monetary model; monetary condition; forecasting inflation; tight monetary policy; range of inflation; theory of money; monetary policy instruments; quantity theory; central bank; inflation ? growth; inflation equation; inflation tax;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Faiz ur, rehman & Wasim, shahid malik, 2010. "A structural VAR (SVAR) approach to cost channel of monetary policy," MPRA Paper 32349, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
  2. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
  3. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  4. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
  5. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
  6. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
  7. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region," IMF Working Papers 08/193, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
  9. Kreiter, Zebulun & Paul, Tapas Kumar, 2010. "Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MPRA Paper 45981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "Role of Demand and Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Nadia Tahir, 2013. "Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Taylor Rules: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, July-Dec.
  14. Dipak Dasgupta & R N Dubey & R Satish, 2011. "Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India: International Prices, Domestic Drivers (Stocks, Weather, Public Policy), and the Efficacy of Public Policy Interventions in Wheat Markets," Working Papers id:4291, eSocialSciences.
  15. Mohsin S. Khan, 2009. "The Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy: Lessons for Pakistan (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 337-356.
  16. Mame Astou Diouf, 2007. "Modeling Inflation for Mali," IMF Working Papers 07/295, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Siffat Mushtaq & Abdul Rashid & Abdul Qayyum, 2012. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 61-96.
  18. Dasgupta, Dipak & Dubey, R.N. & Sathish, R, 2011. "Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 31564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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