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An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

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  • Allan Timmermann

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/59.

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Length: 108
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/59

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Related research

Keywords: World Economic Outlook; Economic forecasting; inflation; forecasting; statistics; correlation; inflation forecasts; statistic; outliers; prediction; predictions; predictability; random walk; equation; standard deviation; correlations; bootstrap; autocorrelation; sample size; covariance; statistical significance; statistical analysis; statistical tests; time series; descriptive statistics; survey; probability; standard deviations; standard errors; sampling distribution; measurement errors; inflation data; sampling; econometrics; samples; inflation rates; sample mean; fitted value; robust statistics; standard error; high inflation; asymptotic distributions; nonlinearity; probability distribution; operations research; bootstraps; martingale; monetary policy; normal distribution; inflation rate; conditional expectation; sensitivity analysis; statistical methods; orthogonality; statistical inference; least squares regression;

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  1. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
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  1. Cet inébranlable optimisme des prévisions de croissance
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-07-08 17:00:00
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