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Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP at Home?

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Serdar Sayan

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Abstract

Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/52.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 09 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/52

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Keywords: Worers remittances ; Business cycles ; Consumption ; Investment incentives ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kuckulenz, Anja & Buch, Claudia M., 2004. "Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-31, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bernd Lucke, 2005. "Is Germany's GDP Trend-Stationary? A Measurement-With Theory Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(1), pages 60-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pallage, Stephane & Robe, Michel A, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 641-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Russell, Sharon Stanton, 1986. "Remittances from international migration: A review in perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 677-696, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudia M. Buch & Anja Kuckulenz & Marie-Helene Le Manchec, 2002. "Worker Remittances and Capital Flows," Kiel Working Papers 1130, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Osman Tuncay Aydas & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Bilin Neyapti, 2005. "Determinants of Workers' Remittances : The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 53-69, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ralph Chami & Samir Jahjah & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development," IMF Working Papers 03/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erik Lueth & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2007. "A Gravity Model of Workers' Remittances," IMF Working Papers 06/290, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Erik Lueth & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2007. "Are Workers' Remittances a Hedge Against Macroeconomic Shocks? The Case of Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 07/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Landesmann & Hermine Vidovic & Vladimir Gligorov & Robert Stehrer & Anna Iara, 2008. "Western Balkan Countries: Adjustment Capacity to External Shocks, with a Focus on Labour Markets," Research Reports 352, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Remittances, Business Cycles and Poverty: The Recent Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 6029, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Houle, René & Schellenberg, Grant, 2008. "Remittance Behaviours Among Recent Immigrants in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2008312e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
  6. Magnusson, Kristin, 2009. "The Impact of U.S. Regional Business Cycles on Remittances to Latin America," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 710, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles with remittance fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 946, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Krishnan Sharma, 2009. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Insecurity," Working Papers 78, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  9. Veronica Bayangos & Karel Jansen, 2009. "The macroeconomics of remittances in the Philippines," Working Papers - General Series 470, Institute of Social Studies. [Downloadable!]
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