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Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is (Still) a Matter of Geography

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Author Info
Helge Berger
Michael Ehrmann
Marcel Fratzscher

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Abstract

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/41.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 17 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/41

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Europe ; European Central Bank ; Economic forecasting ; Data collection ; Data analysis ;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 388, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2003. "Monetary transmission in the euro area: early evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 469-501, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Tomas Dvorak, . "Do Domestic Investors Have an Information Advantage? Evidence from Indonesia," Center for Development Economics 168, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. GINSBURGH, Victor & ORTUNO-ORTIN, Ignacio & WEBER, Shlomo, 2005. "Disenfranchisement in linguistically diverse societies. The case of the European Union," CORE Discussion Papers 2004080, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 369-406, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kee-Hong Bae & Rene M. Stulz & Hongping Tan, 2005. "Do Local Analysts Know More? A Cross-Country Study of the Performance of Local Analysts and Foreign Analysts," NBER Working Papers 11697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
  17. Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa & Vives, Xavier, 2005. "Why and Where do Headquarters Move?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Tomás Dvorák, 2005. "Do Domestic Investors Have an Information Advantage? Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 817-839, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher W. Crowe, 2007. "Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/289, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-331, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Torben Lütje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2007. "What drives home bias? Evidence from fund managers' views," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 21-35. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Cihák & Katerina Smídková & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," IMF Working Papers 08/252, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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