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Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?

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Author Info

  • Luke Willard
  • Tarhan Feyzioglu

Abstract

With China's share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-03 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was sucking in commodities and thus causing sharp increases in global prices. The theoretical literature so far has provided mixed conclusions regarding the strength of international transmission of inflation. This paper uses a number of econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the United States and Japan. It finds only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the United States and Japan. However, it finds some evidence that inflation in the United States has an impact on Chinese inflation, consistent with the literature that argues that inflation is propagated from the reserve currency economy to other economies. In either case, the impact is short lived. At a more disaggregate level, there appears to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and in the United States and Japan, both for food and at the household level for manufactured goods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/36.

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Length: 60
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/36

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Keywords: Trade; Economic models;

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References

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  1. Crowder, William J., 1996. "The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 551-575, August.
  2. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December.
  3. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
  5. Assaf Razin, 2004. "Globalization and Disinflation: A Note," NBER Working Papers 10954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  7. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Yuen, Jude, 2002. "Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 603-619, September.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Taimur Baig & Jörg Decressin & Tarhan Feyzioglu & Manmohan S. Kumar & Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 221, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Nikolay Gueorguiev, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania," IMF Working Papers 03/130, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Raphael Anton Auer & Andreas M. Fischer, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Wage Import Competition on U.S. Inflationary Pressure," Working Papers 2008-18, Swiss National Bank.
  2. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2008. "The Effect of Trade with Low-Income Countries on U.S. Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 6819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Denise Côté & Carlos de Resende, 2008. "Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China," Working Papers 08-35, Bank of Canada.

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