Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks
AbstractPortfolio credit risk measurement is greatly affected by data constraints, especially when focusing on loans given to unlisted firms. Standard methodologies adopt convenient, but not necessarily properly specified parametric distributions or simply ignore the effects of macroeconomic shocks on credit risk. Aiming to improve the measurement of portfolio credit risk, we propose the joint implementation of two new methodologies, namely the conditional probability of default (CoPoD) methodology and the consistent information multivariate density optimizing (CIMDO) methodology. CoPoD incorporates the effects of macroeconomic shocks into credit risk, recovering robust estimators when only short time series of loans exist. CIMDO recovers portfolio multivariate distributions (on which portfolio credit risk measurement relies) with improved specifications, when only partial information about borrowers is available. Implementation is straightforward and can be very useful in stress testing exercises (STEs), as illustrated by the STE carried out within the Danish Financial Sector Assessment Program.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/283.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-05-04 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-05-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2007-05-04 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," FMG Discussion Papers dp428, Financial Markets Group.
- Miguel Angel Segoviano & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 1990.
"Collateral, loan quality and bank risk,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 21-42, January.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Arteta, Carlos, 2000.
"Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
qt3pk9t1h2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2001. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0012012, EconWPA.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dooley, Michael P, 2000.
"A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-72, January.
- Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999.
"The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip Lowe & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," BIS Working Papers 117, Bank for International Settlements.
- Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2005. "Before and After Financial Liberalization," MPRA Paper 6986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Martin CihÃ¡k, 2006. "How Do Central Banks Writeon Financial Stability?," IMF Working Papers 06/163, International Monetary Fund.
- Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995.
"The Nordic Banking Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
95/61, International Monetary Fund.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Wilhelm Fritz, 1995. "The response of short-term bank lending rates to policy rates: a cross-country perspective," BIS Working Papers 27, Bank for International Settlements.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Charles Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2004. "Basel and procyclicality: a comparison of the standardised and IRB approaches to an improved credit risk method," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24821, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Bubbles and Crises The Economic Journal," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Miguel A. Segoviano & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.