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The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil

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Author Info
Marcos Chamon
Irineu de Carvalho Filho

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Abstract

This paper uses Engel curves to estimate real income growth in Brazil. The estimated per capita household real income growth in metropolitan areas during 1987-2002 is about 4½ percent per year, well above the "headline" growth of 1½ percent obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. This suggests a substantial CPI bias during that period, likely owing to one-off effects of trade liberalization and inflation stabilization. The estimated unmeasured gains are higher for poorer households, implying a marked reduction in "real" inequality. This finding challenges the conventional wisdom that post-reform real income growth in Brazil was low.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/275.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 13 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/275

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Related research
Keywords: CPI bias ; trade liberalization ; inflation stabilization ; economic reform ; Income ; Brazil ; Trade liberalization ; Inflation ; Economic stabilization ; Economic reforms ; Consumer price indexes ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  2. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Goni, Edwin & Lopez, Humberto & Serven, Luis, 2006. "Getting realabout inequality : evidence from Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3815, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yatchew, A., 1997. "An elementary estimator of the partial linear model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 135-143, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 23-44, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2001. "Quantifying Quality Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1006-1030, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & JosÈ Luiz Rossi, 2003. "New Evidence from Brazil on Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1383-1405, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Timothy Beatty & Erling Røed Larsen, 2005. "Using Engel curves to estimate bias in the Canadian CPI as a cost of living index," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 482-499, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Angus Deaton & Valerie Kozel, 2005. "Data and Dogma: The Great Indian Poverty Debate," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 177-199.
  11. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu Evangelista, 2008. "Old-age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-146, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Manoel F. Bittencourt, 2007. "Inflation and Finance: Evidence from Brazil," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 07/163, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos & Lisbeth Rivas & Gonzalo C. Pastor, 2008. "Latin America: Highlights from the Implementation of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA)," IMF Working Papers 08/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Manoel Bittencourt, 2007. "Macroeconomic Performance and Inequality: Brazil 1983-1994," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 163, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeromino Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Manoel Bittencourt, 2007. "Financial Development and Inequality: Brazil 1985-1994," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 164, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2007. "Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2007-02, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Trevon D. Logan, 2008. "Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?," NBER Working Papers 13870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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