Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Specification of a Stochastic Simulation Model for Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies

Author Info

Philippe D Karam
Doug Hostland

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Doug Hostland

Abstract

This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies. Key features of the model include external and fiscal sectors, which allow assessment of external and public debt in a unified framework; public and external debt, which both have an explicit maturity structure along with a distinction between denomination in domestic versus foreign currency to facilitate debt management analysis; monetary and fiscal policy, which are endogenous and specified using explicit forward-looking policy rules; an endogenous risk premium on public and external debt; and a mechanism for invoking a sudden stop in private capital flows. The paper provides an overview of the basic structure of the model, outlines the methodology used to calibrate the parameters, and illustrates the key properties of the model with reference to dynamic responses of selected variables to shocks of interest.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/268.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 07 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/268

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-01-06 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2007-01-06 (Central Banking)
NEP-CFN-2007-01-06 (Corporate Finance)
NEP-CMP-2007-01-06 (Computational Economics)
NEP-ICT-2007-01-06 (Information & Communication Technologies)
NEP-PUB-2007-01-06 (Public Finance)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussÃ£o 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
P. Marcelo Oviedo & Enrique Mendoza, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 647, Econometric Society.
Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Staff Reports 182, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," International Finance Discussion Papers 803, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: A macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assesment," NBER Working Papers 10416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Doug & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4481, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
Other versions:
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies.. [Downloadable!]
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Philippe D Karam & Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," IMF Working Papers 05/161, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Working Papers 11589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp079, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferreti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," Trinity Economics Papers tep16, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferreti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," Trinity Economics Papers 2000516, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Dennis P. J. Botman & Dirk Muir & Andrei Romanov & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2009. "Forecasting credit growth rate in Romania: from credit boom to credit crunch?," MPRA Paper 16740, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by editing a NEP report.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.