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To Smooth or Not to Smooth - The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan

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Author Info
Martin Petri
Tahsin Saadi-Sedik

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Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of grants and workers' remittances on Jordan's long-term equilibrium real exchange rate. We estimate an equilibrium path for the Jordanian real exchange rate using the Johansen cointegration methodology over the period 1964 to 2005. Controlling for other fundamentals, we find that both grants and workers' remittances appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate in a statistically and economically significant way. We also find that assessing deviations of the actual real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium real exchange rate is nontrivial because different smoothing methodologies and the nonsmoothed estimates give very different results.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/257.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/257

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Related research
Keywords: Jordan ; grants ; remittances ; equilibrium real exchange rate ; smoothing techniques ; Capital inflows ; Jordan ; Workers remittances ; Exchange rates ; Economic models ;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Sarma Jayanthi & Tamim Bayoumi & Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Working Papers 05/99, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "The Jordanian Stock Market--Should You Invest in it for Risk Diversification or Performance?," IMF Working Papers 06/187, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Tahsin Saadi-Sedik & Joannes Mongardini, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tahsin Saadi-Sedik & Jean-Louis Combes, 2006. "How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 06/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming & Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity--A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 02/208, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  22. Luca Benati, . "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  23. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maher Hasan & Jemma Dridi, 2008. "The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria," IMF Working Papers 08/196, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mario Mansilla & Eugenio Cerutti, 2008. "Bolivia: The Hydrocarbons Boom and the Risk of Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 08/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alexander Chudik & Joannes Mongardini, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Brett Rayner & Joannes Mongardini, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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