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Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia: Evidence from VAR Analysis

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Author Info
Holger Floerkemeier
Era Dabla-Norris
Abstract

This paper examines monetary policy transmission in Armenia in light of the authorities' intention to shift to an inflation-targeting regime over the medium term. We find that the capability of monetary policy to influence economic activity and inflation is still limited, as important channels of monetary transmission are not fully functional. In particular, the interest rate channel remains weak, even though there is some evidence of transmission to prices of changes in the repo rate, the central bank's new operating target for inflation. As in other emerging and transition economies with a high degree of dollarization, the exchange rate channel has a strong impact on the inflation rate. Moreover, we find that inflation does respond to broad money shocks, once foreign currency deposits are included.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/248.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/248

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Keywords: Armenia ; monetary policy ; transmission mechanism ; Monetary policy ; Armenia ; Prices ; Inflation ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Surveying the Surveyable," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 654, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
    Other versions:
  4. DeJong, David N., 1992. "Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series : Evidence from the likelihood function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 347-370, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David A. Grigorian & Armine Khachatryan & Grigor Sargsyan, 2004. "Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages: What is Driving Prices in Armenia?," IMF Working Papers 04/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Favero, Carlo A. & Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "Applied Macroeconometrics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April. [Downloadable!]
  8. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2003. "Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy: the Case of Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 03/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Leonardo Leiderman & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 368, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Atish R. Ghosh, 1996. "The Output-Inflation Nexus in Ukraine - Is there a Trade-off?," IMF Working Papers 96/46, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  17. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ara Stepanyan & Ashot Mkrtchyan & Era Dabla-Norris, 2009. "A New Keynesian Model of the Armenian Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/66, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andreas Billmeier & Giorgi Bakradze, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Georgia: Are We There Yet?," IMF Working Papers 07/193, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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