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Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in Belarus

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Author Info
Rodolfo Maino
Balázs Horváth
Abstract

We explore monetary policy transmission by estimating VAR impulse response functions to illustrate the Belarusian economy's response to unexpected changes in policy and exogenous variables. We find a significant exchange rate pass-through to prices, and interest rate policy following, rather than leading, financial market developments. Our estimated monetary policy reaction function shows the central bank striking a balance between real exchange rate stability and containing inflation. We discuss dollarization, administrative interventions, and other features complicating monetary policy transmission, review specific constraints and vulnerabilities, and conclude with observations on possible measures that could raise the effectiveness of monetary policy in Belarus.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/246.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 02 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/246

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; inflation ; transmission mechanisms ; dollarization ; Monetary policy ; Belarus ; Inflation ; Prices ; Interest rate policy ; Dollarization ; Economic models ;

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  4. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Brad Setser & Mark Allen & Christian Keller & Christoph B. Rosenberg & Nouriel Roubini, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mark P. Taylor & Michael J. Artis, 1993. "The Stabilizing Effect of the ERM on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 93/67, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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