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FEER for the CFA Franc

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Author Info
Charalambos G. Tsangarides
Yasser Abdih

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Abstract

We apply the fundamentals equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) approach and the Johansen cointegration methodology to investigate the behavior of the real effective exchange rates of the two monetary unions of the CFA franc zone (CEMAC and WAEMU) vis-Ã -vis their long-run equilibrium paths. For both CEMAC and WAEMU, our results indicate that: (i) the fundamentals account for most of the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rates, with increases in the terms of trade, government consumption, and productivity improvements causing the exchange rate to appreciate, and increases in investment and openness leading to a depreciation; (ii) at end-2005 both the CEMAC and WAEMU real effective exchange rates were broadly in line with their long-run equilibrium values; and (iii) following a shock, reversion to equilibrium is twice as fast in WAEMU than in CEMAC.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/236.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 26 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/236

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate ; FEER ; cointegration ; WAEMU ; CEMAC ; Exchange rates ; Africa ; Monetary unions ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
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  4. Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil wealth and real exchange rates: The FEER for Norway," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 33, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-22, August.
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:1:p:79-118 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Bernd Schnatz & Chiara Osbat & Rasmus Rueffer, 2003. "The rise of the Yen vis-a-vis the ('Synthetic') Euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?," Working Paper Series 224, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Maravall, Agustin, 1993. "Stochastic linear trends : Models and estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mussa, Michael, 1974. "Tariffs and the Distribution of Income: The Importance of Factor Specificity, Substitutability, and Intensity in the Short and Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1191-1203, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stasavage, David, 1997. "The CFA Franc Zone and Fiscal Discipline," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 132-67, March.
  13. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. repec:rus:hseeco:72137 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Angel J. Ubide & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Susana Garcia Cervero, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates - Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  17. Elbadawi, Ibrahim & Majd, Nader, 1996. "Adjustment and economic performance under a fixed exchange rate: A comparative analysis of the CFA zone," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 939-951, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Paul R. Masson & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2001. "Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS)," IMF Occasional Papers 204, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elena Loukoianova & Plamen Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009. "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 17053, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Magnus Saxegaard & Stéphane Roudet, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU: A Robustness Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, 2008. "Africa's Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness: Do Institutions Matter?," IMF Working Papers 08/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Emilio Pineda & Paul Cashin & Yan Sun, 2009. "Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/78, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Samuel GUERINEAU, 2007. "Can domestic debt contribute to the financing of the "Millennium Development Goals" ? The case of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Working Papers 200720, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  7. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Gustavo Ramirez, 2007. "Competitiveness in the CFA Franc Zone," IMF Working Papers 07/212, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alexander Chudik & Joannes Mongardini, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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