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The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications

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Author Info
Romain Ranciere
Olivier Jeanne

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Abstract

We present a model of the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy that is vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. Reserves allow the country to smooth domestic absorption in response to sudden stops, but yield a lower return than the interest rate on the country's long-term debt. We derive a formula for the optimal level of reserves, and show that plausible calibrations can explain reserves of the order of magnitude observed in many emerging market countries. However, the recent buildup of reserves in Asia seems in excess of what would be implied by an insurance motive against sudden stops.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/229.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 20 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/229

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange reserves ; balance of payments crises ; sudden stops ; capital flows ; Foreign exchange reserves ; Emerging markets ; Balance of payments ; Capital flows ; Financial crisis ;

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  1. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2004. "Contingent reserves management: an applied framework," Working Papers 05-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Economics Working Papers 838, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2004. "Crises and Growth: A Re-Evaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussiere, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies - How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory, and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 05/198, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. David Hauner, 2005. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," IMF Working Papers 05/81, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  13. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-14, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 299, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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