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Beauty Queens and Wallflowers

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  • Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
  • Julian Berengaut
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    Abstract

    Against the background of the theory of optimum currency areas, the paper analyzes possible sequences for establishing a currency union (CU) in the Middle East and Central Asia region. Between the corner solutions of independent currencies for all countries in the region and a CU comprising all countries, a large number of combinations of member countries in the CU is possible. The analysis aims to determine the composition of potential CUs as a function of the country initiating the CU, an exogenously determined number of currencies in the region, and the weight attached to the particular selection criteria. Within this framework, the study seeks to establish whether some countries are consistently selected at early stages of the process, while others join only at later stages.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/226.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/226

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    Related research

    Keywords: Middle East and Central Asia; Economic models; inflation; monetary union; optimum currency areas; monetary fund; central bank; monetary unions; bilateral trade; asymmetric shocks; partner countries; monetary integration; economic integration; regional trade; export structure; regional integration; monetary policy; economic community; export shares; transmission of shocks; international monetary arrangements; exchange rate policies; economic cooperation; evidence of trade diversion; price fluctuations; international trade; trading partner; world economy; trade flows; bilateral trade flows; monetary area; monetary instruments; optimal monetary policy; exchange rate movements; national monetary policy; trade intensity; monetary arrangements; trade structure; institutional convergence; network externalities; international integration; exchange rate regime; trade diversion; open economies; monetary independence; price stability; monetary stability; common market; trade patterns; external shocks;

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    References

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    1. Luca Antonio Ricci, 1997. "A Model of An Optimum Currency Area," IMF Working Papers 97/76, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bottazzi, Laura & Manasse, Paolo, 2002. "Credibility and Seigniorage in a Common Currency Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-46, November.
    3. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2006. "What is Fuzzy About Clustering in West Africa?," IMF Working Papers 06/90, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07.
    6. Chernookiy Valery, 2005. "Adjustment to the Asymmetric Shocks and Currency Unions: the Case of Belarus and Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    7. Ferrero, Andrea, 2005. "Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union," Working Paper Series 0502, European Central Bank.
    8. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-89, November.
    9. Etienne B. Yehoue, 2005. "On the Pattern of Currency Blocs in Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/45, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2005. "What determines bilateral trade flows?," Working Paper Series WP-05-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance," Working Papers 126, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Paul R. Masson & Xavier Debrun & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002. "Monetary Union in West Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/226, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Françoise Le Gall & L. Effie Psalida & Pietro Garibaldi & Julian Berengaut & Jerald Alan Schiff & Kerstin Westin & Augusto López-Claros & Richard E. Stern & Dennis Jones, 1998. "The Baltic Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 173, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December.
    17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436, May.
    19. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July.
    20. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Belkacem Laabas and Imed Limam, . "Are GCC Countries Ready for Currency Union?," API-Working Paper Series 0203, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    22. Roland G. Fryer, Jr. & Paul Torelli, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of 'Acting White'," NBER Working Papers 11334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2005. "Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation," Working Paper Series 0567, European Central Bank.
    24. Edwards, Sebastian & Magendzo, I-Igal, 2002. "Independent Currency Unions, Growth, and Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 215-232, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jian-Ye Wang & Nisreen H. Farhan & Amar Shanghavi & Márcio Valério Ronci & Misa Takebe, 2008. "The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-Income Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/118, International Monetary Fund.

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