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Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

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  • Marcos Chamon
  • Michael Kremer

Abstract

This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries'' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/21.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/21

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Keywords: Economic growth; Economic models; Income distribution; world economy; population growth; world population; population growth rates; natural population growth; demographic trends; demographic changes; political economy; export opportunities; total population; terms of trade; transactions costs; demographic transition; intermediate goods; unit of labor; international trade; trade liberalization; demographic trend; export markets; competitive pressure; open economies; high fertility; world growth; trade integration; lower fertility; transport costs; average trade; intermediate inputs; economic cooperation;

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-12-02 09:41:00
  2. The world now grows in Fosbury style
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2011-04-05 09:59:00
  3. Toward Shifting Wealth Phase II
    by Shifting Wealth in ShiftingWealth on 2012-08-10 14:06:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Carvalho & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2011. "Where are the poor in International Economics?," FEP Working Papers, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto 425, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  2. Ou, Xunmin & Xiaoyu, Yan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 289-297, January.
  3. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 376-382, January.
  4. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  5. Mario Coccia, 2013. "Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries," CERIS Working Paper, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) 201307, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO).

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