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Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect from Sudden Stops?

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Author Info
Andrei A. Levchenko
Paolo Mauro

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Abstract

There is a debate on whether some forms of financial flows offer better crisis protection than others. Using a large panel of advanced, emerging, and developing countries during 1970-2003, this paper analyzes the behavior of various types of flows: foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio equity investment, portfolio debt investment, other flows to the official sector, other flows to banks, and other flows to the non-bank private sector. Differences across types of flows are limited with respect to volatility, persistence, cross-country comovement, and correlation with growth at home or in the world economy. However, consistent with conventional wisdom, FDI is found to be the least volatile form of financial flows when taking into account the average size of net or gross flows. The differences are striking during "sudden stops" in financial flows (defined as drops in total net financial inflows by more than 5 percentage points of GDP compared with the previous year): in such episodes, FDI is remarkably stable; portfolio equity also seems to play a limited role; portfolio debt experiences a reversal, though it recovers relatively quickly; and other flows (including bank loans and trade credit) experience severe drops and remain depressed for a few years.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/202.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 19 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/202

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Keywords: Capital flows ; crises ; foreign direct investment ; Capital flows ; Foreign direct investment ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Faria, Andr & Mauro, Paolo, 2009. "Institutions and the external capital structure of countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 367-391, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Domestic Crony Capitalism and International Fickle Capital: Is There a Connection?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 15-45, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kenneth Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are Capital Flows so much more Volatile in Emerging than in Developed Countries?," Economics Working Papers 862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2005. "World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 267-295, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert E. Lipsey, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2001. "Is foreign direct investment a safer form of financing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 34-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 219-294. [Downloadable!]
  15. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2005. "Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 439-452, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Current Account and External Financing: An Introduction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 439, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace, 2008. "Do European capital flows comove?," Working Papers 2008-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Johanna Francis, 2009. "The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-05, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2008. "Public Governance, Health and Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009_04, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  5. André Faria & Philip R. Lane & Paolo Mauro & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "The Shifting Composition of External Liabilities," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp190, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ramon Moreno, 2007. "Experiences With Current Account Deficits in Southeast Asia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 452, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops and Sudden Starts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 423, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2009. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4896, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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