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Asset Market Participation, Monetary Policy Rules, and the Great Inflation

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  • Florin Bilbiie
  • Roland Straub

Abstract

This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s, and their changes thereafter. We develop an otherwise standard sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which implies that at low asset-market participation rates, the interest rate elasticity of output (the slope of the IS curve) becomes positive - that is, "non-Keynesian." Remarkably, in that case, a passive monetary policy rule ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. Consequently, we argue that the policy of the Federal Reserve System in the pre-Volcker era, often associated with a passive monetary policy rule, was closer to optimal than conventional wisdom suggests and may thus have remained unchanged at a fundamental level thereafter. We provide institutional and empirical evidence for our hypothesis, in the latter case using Bayesian estimation techniques, and show that our model is able to explain most features of the "Great Inflation."

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/200.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/200

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Keywords: Markets;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2010. "Time Variation in U.S. Wage Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 3291, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Changes in the output Euler equation and asset markets participation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1659-1672.
  3. Barnett, Alina & Straub, Roland, 2008. "What drives U.S. current account fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 0959, European Central Bank.
  4. Florin Bilbiie & Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2012. "Public Debt and Redistribution with Borrowing Constraints," Working Papers 448, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad & López-Salido, David, 2011. "The role of liquid government bonds in the great transformation of American monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 282-294, March.

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