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Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area: Assessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy

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Emil Stavrev

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Abstract

The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/197.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 11 Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/197

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Related research
Keywords: Underlying inflation forecast evaluation composite indicators forecast risk assessment Inflation Euro area Monetary policy Economic models

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  1. Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2002. "A first assessment of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Papers 02 05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. C.K. Folkertsma & K. Hubrich, 2001. "Performance of core inflation measures," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 63, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2004. "Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Working Paper Series 335, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Stephen Hall & James Mitchell, 2004. "Density Forecast Combination," NIESR Discussion Papers 249, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
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