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The Jordanian Stock Market

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Author Info

  • Martin Petri
  • Tahsin Saadi-Sedik

Abstract

We analyze the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and its integration with other markets. Using cointegration techniques, we find that the ASE and other Arab stock markets are cointegrated, which implies little long-run risk diversification. However, there is no cointegrating relationship between the ASE and other emerging or developed stock markets. Two of the main regional stock markets-Kuwait and Saudi Arabia-Grangercause the Jordanian stock market. The paper finds that there may have been some overvaluation at end-2005, but that the market correction in early 2006 and strong recent earnings growth have reduced overvaluation concerns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/187.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/187

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Related research

Keywords: Stock markets; stock market; statistic; cointegration; stock exchange; bonds; equation; stock prices; statistics; overvaluation; correlation; standard deviation; granger causality; probability; stock market indices; correlations; stock market integration; stock index; descriptive statistics; prediction; stock market price; stock indices; time series; emerging stock valuations; stock returns; causation; equity markets; financial instruments; maximum likelihood estimator; financial market; financial markets; linear time trend; treasury bonds; stock price; linear time; predictability; international financial markets; linear trend; stock price index; perturbations; stock market decline; maximum likelihood estimation; hypothesis testing; international standards; present value; financial resources; stock market index; corporate bonds; stock portfolios; vector autoregression; foreign stock; financial economics; stock market prices; statistical analysis; stock valuation; international finance; sample size; nominal interest rate; statistical significance;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1979. "Exogeneity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 162, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
    • ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP -516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. repec:rus:hseeco:278562 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
  5. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
  6. Click, Reid W. & Plummer, Michael G., 2005. "Stock market integration in ASEAN after the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 5-28, February.
  7. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July.
  8. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
  9. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  12. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-60, July.
  13. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  14. Eun, Cheol S & Resnick, Bruce G, 1984. " Estimating the Correlation Structure of International Share Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1311-24, December.
  15. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. "Increasing convergence among European stock markets?: A recursive common stochastic trends analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 383-389, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth," IMF Working Papers 06/257, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Amira Akl Ahmed, 2014. "Evolving and relative efficiency of MENA stock markets: evidence from rolling joint variance ratio tests," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 91-126, May.
  4. Billmeier, Andreas & Massa, Isabella, 2008. "Go long or short in pyramids? News from the Egyptian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 949-970, December.

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