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Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter

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Author Info
Törbjörn I. Becker
Paolo Mauro

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Abstract

Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/172.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/172

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Keywords: Growth ; output collapse ; external shocks ; volatility ; crises ; Economic growth ; Financial crisis ; Capital flows ; Emerging markets ; Trade ;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," NBER Working Papers 13111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Martin D. Cerisola & Anoop Singh, 2006. "Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence: Some Historical Perspectives," IMF Working Papers 06/252, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Selim Elekdag & Roberto Cardarelli, 2009. "Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 09/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Calderon, Cesar & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2009. "Zooming in : from aggregate volatility to income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4895, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Africa and Arab Gulf states : divergent development paths and prospects for convergence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5025, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Rapid Current Account Adjustments: Are Microstates Different?," IMF Working Papers 08/233, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Loayza, Norman & Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2009. "Natural disasters and growth - going beyond the averages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4980, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2009. "Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction," RES Working Papers 4610, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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