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Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model

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Author Info
Silvia Sgherri
Tamim Bayoumi

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Abstract

We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/168.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/168

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Keywords: Fiscal policy ; fiscal multipliers ; Ricardian equivalence ; discount rates ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, J David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2005. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 5212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 435-470, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  7. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marina Benedetti, 2005. "Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area - a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 747, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Leimer, Dean R & Richardson, David H, 1992. "Social Security, Uncertainty Adjustments and the Consumption Decision," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(235), pages 311-35, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Ivan Tchakarov & Philippe D Karam & Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Ben Hunt & Douglas Laxton & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2004. "GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Ganelli, Giovanni, 2005. "The new open economy macroeconomics of government debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 167-184, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Dennis P. J. Botman & Dirk Muir & Andrei Romanov & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  22. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "On the Impact of Income and Policy Shocks on Consumption," DNB Working Papers 152, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances: Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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