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Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure

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Author Info

  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Tamim Bayoumi

Abstract

We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/168.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/168

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Related research

Keywords: Discount rates; Income; Interest rates; Taxes; equation; fiscal policy; instrumental variables; fiscal multipliers; tax cut; government spending; tax cuts; budget constraint; random walk; probability; fiscal contractions; equations; fiscal consolidation; tax changes; time series; tax increases; instrumental variable; independent variables; tax rates; tax policy; budget deficit; standard deviations; tax base; significance level; expansionary fiscal contractions; fiscal policy on consumption; statistics; fiscal model; vector autoregression; logarithm; correlation; expansionary fiscal; predictions; general equilibrium models; general equilibrium ? models; aggregate demand; tax reform; general equilibrium model; fiscal policies; tax wedge; fiscal consolidations;

References

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  1. Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, J David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2005. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 5212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marina Benedetti, 2005. "Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," CSEF Working Papers 142, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Scholarly Articles 3353762, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 05/159, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  11. Leimer, Dean R & Richardson, David H, 1992. "Social Security, Uncertainty Adjustments and the Consumption Decision," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(235), pages 311-35, August.
  12. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints (Expanded Version)," NBER Working Papers 8387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam & Alessandro Rebucci & Jaewoo Lee & Ben Hunt & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "Gem," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Giovanni Ganelli, 2002. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics of Government Debt," Trinity Economics Papers 200214, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  17. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. R. Glenn Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 4884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Andrew A. Samwick, 1997. "Discount Rate Heterogeneity and Social Security Reform," NBER Working Papers 6219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  21. Dirk Muir & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P. J. Botman & Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007.
  3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Nicola Giammaroli & Alessandro Piergallini, 2011. "Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons," CEIS Research Paper 207, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Jul 2011.
  4. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "On Impatience and Policy Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 09/18, International Monetary Fund.

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