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Macroeconomic Volatility

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  • Anoop Singh
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    Abstract

    The recent recovery in Latin America has been impressive but also raises the question whether this represents a fundamental break with the region''s history of boom-bust cycles. The paper traces how this history of macroeconomic volatility and financial crisis over the past century has adversely impacted on growth and other development indicators, and the role played by policy instability. The paper then concludes that recent policies in the region offer encouragement that these vulnerabilities are being addressed, but notes that an important agenda still remains to be addressed.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/166.

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    Length: 31
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/166

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    Related research

    Keywords: Latin America; Inflation targeting; inflation; public debt; debt ratio; foreign currency; central bank; terms of trade; central banks; low inflation; macroeconomic stability; currency crises; monetary policy; high inflation; current account; debt ratios; debt restructuring; inflation rate; annual inflation; debt management; currency debt; real interest rates; monetary economics; debt relief; debt reduction; annual inflation rate; foreign currency debt; external shocks; debt managers; debt maturity; current account balances; money supply; debt sustainability; public finance; currency crisis; excessive borrowing; debt relief initiative; domestic currencies; multilateral debt relief; financial stability; high inflations; inflationary pressures; debt exchange; debt default; price stability; low debt; multilateral debt; debt defaults; current account surpluses; sovereign debt; debt dynamics; global liquidity; debt structure;

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    References

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    1. Marco Terrones & Luis Catão, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2004. "Economic Growth in Latin America and The Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 265, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ratna Sahay & Rishi Goyal, 2006. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/287, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    6. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
    7. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Stein, Ernesto & Hommes, Rudolf & Hausmann, Ricardo & Alesina, Alberto, 1999. "Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Latin America," Scholarly Articles 4553021, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Anthony Annett, 2001. "Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 7.
    10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1998. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Working Papers 6358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2006. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 06/121, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67.
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