IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework
AbstractThis paper presents an analytical framework for considering the role of IMF-supported programs in preventing crises, particularly capital account crises. The model builds upon the global games framework to establish a unique relationship between the crisis probability and the parameters of the program, which is assumed to be negotiated between the IMF and the member country, taking explicit account of each party's interests. In the model, from the perspective of the borrowing country, IMF financing and policy adjustment are (perfect) substitutes inasmuch as they both contribute to the country's liquidity and thus reduce the likelihood of a crisis. In equilibrium, however, IMF financing promotes stronger policies, implying that financing and adjustment are strong complements in crisis prevention. Conditionality plays a crucial role in sustaining the program, providing mutual assurances-to the member country that, if it undertakes the agreed policies, financing will indeed be forthcoming, and to the IMF that the country will implement the agreed policies as the IMF disburses its resources. The model helps explain how liquidity crises may come about, how IMF support can reduce the likelihood of a crisis by providing liquidity and sustaining stronger policies, and why the observed mix between financing and adjustment may vary across programs.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/156.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2006-08-05 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-SEA-2006-08-05 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:imf:imfpdp:9702 is not listed on IDEAS
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005.
"Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries,"
Working Paper Series
rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003.
13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael D. Bordo & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes, 2004.
"Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 421-450, December.
- Michael D. Bordo & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes, 2004. "Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF," IMF Working Papers 04/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael D. Bordo & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes, 2004. "Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF," NBER Working Papers 10834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charalambos Christofides & Atish R. Ghosh & Uma Ramakrishnan & Alun H. Thomas & Laura Papi & Juan Zalduendo & Jun Il Kim, 2005. "The Design of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Occasional Papers 241, International Monetary Fund.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1997. "Applied Economics in Action: IMF Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 23-27, May.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004.
"Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm339, Yale School of Management.
- Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March.
- Curzio Giannini & Carlo Cottarelli, 2002. "Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending," IMF Working Papers 02/193, International Monetary Fund.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimarães, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2004. "International Lending of Last Resort and Moral Hazard: A Model of the IMF's Catalytic Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 4383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- VJeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 149-192, September.
- repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jun Il Kim, 2007. "Unconditional IMF Financial Support and Investor Moral Hazard," IMF Working Papers 07/104, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeanne, Olivier & Ostry, Jonathan D & Zettelmeyer, Jeronimo, 2008.
"A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Jonathan David Ostry & Olivier Jeanne, 2008. "A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality," IMF Working Papers 08/236, International Monetary Fund.
- Uma Ramakrishnan & Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 06/75, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.