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Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey

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Author Info
Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Abstract

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have publicly traded securities or secondary market prices are unreliable because of low liquidity.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/149.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 22 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/149

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Related research
Keywords: Default probabilities ; econometric models ; scoring models ; ratings models ; Financial stability ; Credit controls ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, . "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Veronica Balzarotti & Michael Falkenheim & Andrew Powell, 2002. "On the Use of Portfolio Risk Models and Capital Requirements in Emerging Markets: The Case of Argentina," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 197-212, August.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Banco de España Working Papers 0531, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  8. Til Schuermann & Samuel Hanson, 2004. "Estimating probabilities of default," Staff Reports 190, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September. [Downloadable!]
  2. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier, 2008. "Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing," Working Papers 08-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz, 2009. "Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs:Evidence from Slovakia," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 72, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Per Asberg Sommar & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2009. "Interdependencies between Expected Default Frequency and the Macro Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 83-110, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Åsberg Sommar, Per & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2008. "Macroeconomic Impact on Expected Default Frequency," Working Paper Series 219, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  6. Pesola, Jarmo, 2007. "Financial fragility, macroeconomic shocks and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Europe," Research Discussion Papers 15/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dietske Simons & Ferdinand Rolwes, 2009. "Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 177-204, September. [Downloadable!]
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