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Does Fiscal Policy Matter for the Trade Account? A Panel Cointegration Study

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  • Christiane Nickel
  • Katja Funke
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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the trade account. Research prior to this paper did not consider that the components of private and public demand in the import demand equation exhibit different elasticities. Using pooled mean group estimation for annual panel data of the G-7 countries for the years 1970 through 2002, we provide empirical evidence that the composition of overall demand-i.e., the distribution among public demand, private demand, and export demand-has an impact on the magnitude of the trade account deficit.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/147.

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    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/147

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    1. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    3. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 0509, European Central Bank.
    4. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 825, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    7. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
    9. Michel Normandin, 1994. "Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 31, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Baxter, M., 1994. "International Trade and Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 390, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    12. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    13. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    14. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-81, August.
    15. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 1998. "The trade balance and fiscal policy in the OECD," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 887-895, May.
    16. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
    17. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 0311, European Central Bank.
    18. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
    19. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-64, May.
    20. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 9-22, February.
    21. Michele Cavallo, 2005. "Understanding the twin deficits: new approaches, new results," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul22.
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    Cited by:
    1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series 2559, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Burcu KIRAN, 2011. "On The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence From Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    3. Alfonso Arpaia & Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 300, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Nickel, Christiane & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 0935, European Central Bank.

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