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Excess Liquidity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

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Author Info
Magnus Saxegaard
Abstract

This paper examines the pattern of excess liquidity in sub-Saharan Africa and its consequences for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The paper argues that understanding the consequences of excess liquidity requires quantifying the extent to which commercial bank holdings of excess liquidity exceed levels required for precautionary purposes. It proposes a methodology for measuring this quantity and uses it to estimate a nonlinear structural VAR model for the CEMAC region, Nigeria and Uganda. The study suggests that excess liquidity weakens the monetary policy transmission mechanism and thus the ability of monetary authorities to influence demand conditions in the economy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/115.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 12 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/115

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Keywords: Excess liquidity ; Sub-Saharan Africa ; Central African Economic and Monetary Community ; Nigeria ; Uganda ; Monetary policy ; Money supply ; Credit ; Economic models ;

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  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
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  4. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
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  5. Jean A. P. Clément & Stéphane Cossé & Jean Le Dem & Johannes Mueller, 1996. "Aftermath of the CFA Franc Devaluation," IMF Occasional Papers 138, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Emilio Sacerdoti, 2005. "Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Issues and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 05/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Baldacci, Emanuele & Hillman, Arye L. & Kojo, Naoko C., 2004. "Growth, governance, and fiscal policy transmission channels in low-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 517-549, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. David Fielding, 1994. "Money Demand in Four African Countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 3-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Savvides, Andreas, 1998. "Inflation and monetary policy in selected West and Central African countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 809-827, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
  19. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. KAMGNA, Severin Yves & Ndambendia, Houdou, 2008. "Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC
    [Excess liquidity and monetary policy effectiveness: The case of CEMAC countries]
    ," MPRA Paper 9599, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alfredo Baldini & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tarron Khemraj, 2007. "What does excess bank liquidity say about the loan market in Less Developed Countries?," Working Papers 60, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  4. Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 09/17, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Joe Crowley, 2007. "Interest Rate Spreads in English-Speaking African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/101, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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