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The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand

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Author Info
Ivan Tchakarov
Selim Elekdag

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Abstract

Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/110.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 10 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/110

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Keywords: Exchange rate regime ; global economy model ; Thailand ; Interest rates ; Thailand ; Business cycles ; Emerging markets ; Exchange rate regimes ; International trade ; Economic models ;

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  1. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2003. "Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?," NBER Working Papers 10018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag & Alejandro Justiniano, 2005. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Working Papers 05/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag, 2004. "Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare," IMF Working Papers 04/63, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ivan Tchakarov & Philippe D Karam & Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Ben Hunt & Douglas Laxton & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2004. "GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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