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A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing tool

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Author Info

  • Renzo G. Avesani
  • Jing Li
  • Antonio Garcia Pascual

Abstract

This paper generalizes a market-based indicator for financial sector surveillance using a multifactor latent structure in the determination of the default probabilities of an nth-todefault credit default swap (CDS) basket of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs). To estimate the multifactor latent structure, we link the market risk (the covariance of the LCFIs'' equity) to credit risk (the default probability of the CDS basket) in a coherent manner. In addition, to analyze the response of the probabilities of default to changing macroeconomic conditions, we run a stress test by generating shocks to the latent multifactor structure. The results unveil a rich set of default probability dynamics and help in identifying the most relevant sources of risk. We anticipate that this approach could be of value to financial supervisors and risk managers alike.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/105.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/105

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Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
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Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
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Related research

Keywords: Risk management; Stress testing; Credit risk; Economic indicators; Investment policy; Commodity pricing policy; Banks; Economic models; probability; correlation; probabilities; correlations; probability of default; banking; factor analysis; computation; bank of england; investment banking; covariance; sensitivity analysis; equation; probability distribution; banking business; tests of significance; bank risk; banking crises; bank system; foreign exchange; bank market; banking system; investment bank; multivariate analysis; random variable; bank market discipline; bank bond; bank fragility; banking supervisors; bank performance; monte carlo simulation; statistic; bank bond markets;

References

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  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 1548, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson & David Schranz, 2005. "Measuring default risk premia from default swap rates and EDFs," BIS Working Papers 173, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  5. Renzo G. Avesani, 2005. "First," IMF Working Papers 05/232, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  7. Michael S. Gibson, 2004. "Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Christian Hawkesby & Ian W Marsh & Ibrahim Stevens, 2005. "Comovements in the prices of securities issued by large complex financial institutions," Bank of England working papers 256, Bank of England.
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Renzo G. Avesani & Elina Ribakova & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2007. "The Use of Mortgage Covered Bonds," IMF Working Papers 07/20, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Armen Hovakimian & Edward J. Kane & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2010," NBER Working Papers 18043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sangwon Suh & Inwon Jang & Misun Ahn, 2013. "A Simple Method For Measuring Systemic Risk Using Credit Default Swap Market Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 75-100, December.
  6. Andre Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2013. "Measuring Credit Risk in a Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-063/IV/DSF56, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 May 2013.
  7. Toni Gravelle & Fuchun Li, 2011. "Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach," Working Papers 11-19, Bank of Canada.
  8. Andre Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2013. "Measuring Credit Risk in a Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-063/IV/DSF56, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 May 2013.
  9. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
  10. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
  11. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
  12. Hsu, S. & Li, J. & Qin, Y., 2013. "Shadow Banking and Systemic Risk in Europe and China," CITYPERC Working Paper Series 2013-02, Department of International Politics, City University London.
  13. Xin Zhang & Bernd Schwaab & Andre Lucas, 2011. "Conditional Probabilities and Contagion Measures for Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-176/2/DSF29, Tinbergen Institute, revised 28 Jun 2012.
  14. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does competition affect bank systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26.

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