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Is the Middle East and North Africa Region Achieving its Trade Potential?

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  • Ludvig Söderling
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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes export performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using a gravity model applied to panel data. It addresses two questions: (i) are there significant unexploited export markets for the MENA region?; and (ii) have integration efforts with the EU since the mid-1990s yielded positive results? The results suggest that several MENA countries are substantially underexploiting the United States as an export market. Moreover, the impact of integration efforts with the European Union has been moderate overall but significant in individual cases.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/90.

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    Length: 23
    Date of creation: 01 May 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/90

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    Related research

    Keywords: Trade; Syria; Oil; Economic models; export potential; export performance; bilateral trade; export potentials; export markets; export growth; trade costs; trade liberalization; exporter; integration efforts; export market; free trade; exporters; trade barriers; trade performance; oil exporters; international trade; commodity exporters; trading partners; total export; exporting country; countries ? exports; regional integration; trade integration; agricultural exports; elasticity of substitution; increasing trade; primary exporter; nontraditional exports; export ratio; openness to imports; trade patterns; importing country; global trade; intermediate inputs; bilateral trade data; trade facilitation; commodity exports; nontariff barriers; trade data; trade relations; bilateral trade barriers; economic integration; share of exports; global export; agricultural export; competitive pressure; trade pattern; constant elasticity of substitution; free trade zone; nontradable goods; trade levels; producer prices; global integration; free trade agreement; domestic demand; export performances; trading patterns; export bases; trade openness; trade area; intermediate goods; import price; free trade agreements; trade agreement; preferential access; gas exports; bilateral imports; terms of trade; trade discrimination; global shocks; commodity prices; world economy; trade partners; skilled labor; terms of trade shocks; trading partner; increasing competition; trade creation; domestic market; increasing integration; increased trade; trade capacity; trade agreements; total exports; world trade; free entry; economic cooperation; endogenous growth; free trade area; trade policies; external trade;

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    References

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    1. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Coe, David T & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1999. "North-South Trade: Is Africa Unusual?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(2), pages 228-56, July.
    3. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers, WIFO 141, WIFO.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Madani & Dorsati & Yang & Tzu-Han & Liang & Chi-Yuan, . "Testing Endogenous Growth In South Korea And Taiwan," Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics 97-16, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    5. J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    6. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
    7. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    8. Rikhil Bhavnani & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Arvind Subramanian & David T. Coe, 2002. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 02/171, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hagemejer, Jan & Cieslik, Andrzej, 2009. "Assessing the impact of the EU-sponsored trade liberalization in the MENA countries," MPRA Paper 17721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. María Dolores Parra Robles & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Celestino Suárez Burguet, 2012. "The impact of FTAs on MENA trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research 217, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Juan Ruiz & Josep M. Vilarrubia, 2007. "The wise use of dummies in gravity models: export potentials in the Euromed region," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0720, Banco de Espa�a.
    4. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
    5. Kula, Ferit & Aslan, Alper, 2008. "Turkiye’nin ortadogu’da ekonomik gelecegi: Turkiye’nin ihracat potansiyeline yonelik ampirik bir analiz," MPRA Paper 10688, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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