This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Nicholas Apergis
Stephen M. Miller
Alexandros Panethimitakis
Athanasios Vamvakidis

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules contribute to macroeconomic stability and monetary policy credibility, and that a positive inflation target, as opposed to zero inflation, leads to higher and less volatile output. These results are robust to changes in the specification of the model and time period. The same methodology applied to individual countries supports country-specific flexible inflation targeting.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/wp0589.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/89.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 19 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/89

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Inflation targeting ; European Union ; Economic growth ;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Amano, Robert & Coletti, Don & Macklem, Tiff, 1999. "Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes," Working Papers 99-8, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
    Other versions:
  5. Bagliano, Fabio C & Golinelli, Roberto & Morana, Claudio, 2002. "Core Inflation in the Euro Area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Mark A. Wynne, 2003. "Inflation measurement and the ECB's pursuit of price stability: a first assessment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 395-434, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrea Schaechter & Marc Zelmer, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Vittorio Corbo & Oscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," Working Papers 51, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. C.K. Folkertsma & K. Hubrich, 2001. "Performance of core inflation measures," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 63, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jrgen von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 127-148. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. " Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-85, October.
    Other versions:
  17. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Holbrook, Robert S, 1972. "Optimal Economic Policy and the Problem of Instrument Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 57-65, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "Do We Know How Low Inflation Should Be?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Pierre L. Siklos, 1999. "Inflation-target design: changing inflation performance and persistence in industrial countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 46-58. [Downloadable!]
  28. Yvonne Adema, 2004. "A Taylor Rule for the Euro Area Based on Quasi-Real Time Data," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 114, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80. [Downloadable!]
  31. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient inflation estimation," Working Paper 9707, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    Other versions:
  32. Arestis, Philip & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade-Off between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 528-45, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  34. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  35. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  36. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Frederico S. Finan & Robert Tetlow, 1999. "Optimal control of large, forward-looking models efficient solutions and two examples," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  38. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    Other versions:
  39. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  41. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All top Economics journals are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.