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The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds

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Author Info
Jochen R. Andritzky
Geoffrey J. Bannister
Natalia T. Tamirisa

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Abstract

This paper examines how emerging bond markets react to macroeconomic announcements. Global bond spreads respond to rating actions and changes in global interest rates rather than domestic data and policy announcements. All announcements affect market volatility. Data and policy announcements reduce uncertainty and stabilize the trading environment, while rating actions cause greater volatility. Results are broadly robust to country-specific and panel analyses, assuming conditional variance and controlling for the surprise content of news. In subsamples, announcements are found to matter less for countries with more transparent policies and higher credit ratings. In a crisis, rating actions become less important, and investors focus more on simple and timely indicators, like CPI.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/83.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 05 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/83

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Keywords: Announcements ; Emerging markets ; Bonds ; Financial crisis ;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kim, Suk-Joong & McKenzie, Michael D. & Faff, Robert W., 2004. "Macroeconomic news announcements and the role of expectations: evidence for US bond, stock and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 217-232, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1991:i:sep:p:3-12:n:v.77no.5 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hali J. Edison, 1996. "The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases," International Finance Discussion Papers 570, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  10. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
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  13. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 2003. "Information arrivals and intraday exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 85-112, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Aggarwal, Raj & Schirm, David C., 1998. "Asymmetric impact of trade balance news on asset prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 83-100, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2008. "EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200815, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  2. Garima Vasishtha & Taimur Baig & Manmohan S. Kumar & Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 06/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorge Selaive C. & Valentín Délano T., 2006. "Sovereign Spreads: A Factorial Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, April. [Downloadable!]
  4. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Moser, Christoph / Dreher, Axel, 2007. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ramon Moreno, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission and the long-term interest rate in emerging markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 61-79 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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