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The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations

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Author Info
Eswar Prasad
Shang-Jin Wei

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Abstract

In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/79.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: 28 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/79

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Keywords: Foreign investment China Reserves External debt Capital controls Capital inflows

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    Other versions:
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Morris Goldstein, 2004. "Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP04-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eswar Prasad & Thomas Rumbaugh & Qing Wang, 2005. "Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/1, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Julan Du & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 916-942, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," NBER Working Papers 11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Domestic Crony Capitalism and International Fickle Capital: Is There a Connection?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 15-45, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kenneth Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-11, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Irina Tytell & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 04/84, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Eswar Prasad, 2004. "China's Growth and Integration into the World Economy: Prospects and Challenges," IMF Occasional Papers 232, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Funke, Michael & Rahn, Jörg, 2004. "Just how undervalued is the Chinese renminbi?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Eduardo Borensztein & Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1995. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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