AbstractProjections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over 2000-50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results in this paper: Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-agerelated expenditure growth. Specifically, under realistic assumptions, the belt-tightening required to maintain fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures could be less painful than commonly thought.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/71.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2005
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-10-22 (Public Economics)
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- Peter S. Heller & David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 05/91, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter Heller & David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 325-350, August.
- Ignazio Visco & Barry Eichengreen & Gilles Mourre & Declan Costello & Giuseppe Carone & Nuria Diez Guardia & Bartosz Przywara & Aino SalomÃ¤ki & Vincenzo Galasso & Mark Weth & Sebastian Schich & Eti, 2007. "Money, Finance and Demography: The Consequences of Ageing," SUERF Colloquium Volumes, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan & Frank Lierman.
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