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A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns

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  • Marco Del Negro
  • Robin Brooks

Abstract

We estimate a latent factor model that decomposes international stock returns into global, country-, and industry-specific shocks and allows for stock-specific exposures to these shocks. We find that across stocks there is substantial dispersion in these exposures, which is partly explained by the extent to which firms operate across countries. We show that portfolios consisting of stocks with low exposures to country shocks achieve substantial variance reduction relative to the global market, both in- and out-of-sample. The shock exposures are thus a stock-selection device for international portfolio diversification.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 05/52.

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Length: 61
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:05/52

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Related research

Keywords: Industrial structure; Risk premium; Export diversification; Stock markets; Economic models;

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References

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  1. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  2. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert & Wessels, Roberto E., 1995. "The structure of international stock returns and the integration of capital markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 173-197, September.
  3. Bodnar, G.M. & Dumas, B. & Marston, R.C., 1998. "Pass-Through and Exposure," Weiss Center Working Papers 98-01, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  5. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
  6. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-41.
  7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  8. Cho, D Chinhyung & Eun, Cheol S & Senbet, Lemma W, 1986. " International Arbitrage Pricing Theory: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 313-29, June.
  9. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
  10. Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1998. "The Risk and Return from Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 159-188, June.
  11. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  12. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Barbara Pfeffer, 2006. "Trade Policy and Risk Diversification," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 126-06, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  2. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A New Look at Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of Industry, Provincial, National and External Factors," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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